PAGASA and The Weather

Some people are criticizing PAGASA for its inaccurate weather forecast. Since the time I was born and as far as I can remember, you can count on your fingers how many weather forecasts are predicted accurately per year. Is there something wrong with the way PAGASA is doing its weather forecasting? Or shall we believe their age-old alibi that it is really hard to predict the weather forecast because the weather is erratic by its very nature?

So the problem is: PAGASA cannot give us accurate weather forecast.
Why? Because the weather is erratic.
Another why? Because their equipment is not capable of accurate weather forecasting.
For the first WHY, case is closed. We can never do anything about that.
For the second WHY, there are possible solutions like purchasing and installing a more state-of-the art equipment capable of giving more accurate weather predictions at a six sigma level so that you have a 99.99966% chance of an accurate weather prediction.We can also take a look at PAGASA’s workforce. We can take a look at their competencies. Of course, this is not to say that they are not competent enough to be there. What I am saying is that, their people must be constantly trained or be updated when it comes to weather forecasting. Why? Because we do not know how a certain area will react to the intensity of the typhoon especially if that area is rarely visited by a typhoon. It’s easier to say to Batanes residents or those living near the coastal area to evacuate once a typhoon is forecasted to be coming because its the nature of their geographical location; to be visited by typhoons. Yes, PAGASA can predict the volume of water that a typhoon or a heavy rain will bring but a typhoon is not just composed of water but water PLUS strong wind.

So speaking of the latest typhoon Chedeng, PAGASA deserves commendation and NOT criticism for advising people to prepare for the typhoon. It was forecasted that Chedeng could have been another Ondoy and PAGASA gave the necessary information and warning to the people especially those living near bodies of water and landslide-prone areas. Ms. Dinky Soliman said during a TV interview on Wednesday morning that the government is aiming for a zero casualty that is why the cooperation and understanding of the people is really needed. Yes, sleeping in an evacuation center is hard but it is nothing compared to losing someone due to typhoon.

PAGASA rocked us all by telling us to prepare and we listened. Yes, the forecast is inaccurate again but isn’t it right to consider this (our place not being hit by Chedeng) as a blessing? Instead of criticizing PAGASA, why don’t we thank them for a job well done in informing us that a typhoon as strong as Ondoy COULD have hit us?